TPTP 04/25/25

Market Minute ⏱️ 4/25/25: US-China Stepping Back from the Brink?

Mike Larson | Editor-in-Chief

It’s been a solid week for the stock market, even if it might not seem so. Equities are easing back this morning, though, as are crude oil, gold, and silver. Long-term Treasuries and the dollar are modestly higher in the early going.

Are the US and China stepping back from the brink of the abyss? That’s what Wall Street is STARTING to price in this week. The latest news overnight: China could waive its 125% tariff on various categories of goods and services, including medical equipment and airplane lease payments. The move comes after President Trump insisted US-China talks are going on behind the scenes (even though Chinese officials called that “fake news.”)

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

From a technical perspective, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) carved out a higher low on Monday’s pullback. It’s now challenging overhead resistance just under $550. That’s the first step toward building a base that lasts more than a day or two. I wrote recently about what else I’d like to see before getting more aggressive to the long side. We’re also seeing a modest easing of the “Sell the US” trade in bonds and currencies.

In earnings news, Google parent Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) delivered a trifecta of good news. The company reported $2.81 in Q1 earnings per share, well above the $2.01 analysts expected. It announced a $70 billion stock buyback. And it boosted its dividend payout by 5%. Shares rose on the news, though Alphabet is still facing a federal antitrust lawsuit that could force it to divest some business lines.

On the flip side, struggling semiconductor giant Intel Corp. (INTC) handed investors more disappointing news. It forecast sales of $11.2 billion to $12.4 billion in the second quarter, missing estimates of $12.8 billion. The company could face higher costs as a result of Trump’s tariffs, and it’s reportedly considering cutting 20% of its workforce – or around 22,000 employees.

Grenell: President Trump’s Plan for the American Economy

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• BA: Q1 Results Signal Turnaround is on the Right Track
  👉️ TICKER: BA
  Boeing Co. (BA) delivered a strong Q1 earnings report this week, beating top- and bottom-line expectations. The market certainly liked what it saw and viewed Q1 as a step in the right direction. It feels like investors are finally waking up to what we’ve been pounding the table on for the better part of the last year, notes Tom Hayes, editor of HedgeFundTips.

• KTOS: Valkyrie "Line Extension" Could Power this Defense Play Higher
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