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- TPTP 04/21/25
TPTP 04/21/25
Mike Larson
April 21, 2025
Mike Larson | Editor-in-Chief
Here we go again. Stocks are selling off, long-term Treasury yields are rising, the US dollar is dropping, and gold is surging. Crude oil is slipping.
What’s driving another round of “Sell the US” trading? President Trump has made it clear he doesn’t approve of the choices Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell is making. He wants Powell to cut rates NOW rather than wait – and he’s so unhappy, he’s reportedly deciding whether to attempt to fire him.
Gold, US Dollar, S&P 500, Long Bond Futures
(5-day % Change)
It’s unclear if such a move is legal, however, given the statutes that govern the Fed. The Supreme Court might ultimately have to rule on that. In the meantime, even TALK of putting monetary policy under the direct control of the executive branch is violating decades of protocol under both Republican and Democratic administrations.
That, in turn, could make global investors boost the risk premium associated with US assets and the threat of longer-term US inflation. And THAT is why the dollar keeps tanking, gold keeps rising, long-term yields are climbing again, and stock market volatility remains elevated.
Meanwhile, Q1 earnings season shifts into high gear this week. High-profile companies like Tesla Inc. (TSLA) and Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) are reporting their latest numbers Tuesday and Thursday. We’ll also get reports from drug giants Merck & Co. (MRK) and Novartis AG (NVS), computing and consulting behemoth International Business Machines Corp. (IBM), and railroad bellwether Union Pacific Corp. (UNP).
Only about 12% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q1 results so far. The average growth rate thus far is 7.2% year-over-year. Analysts expect YOY growth from seven of 11 S&P 500 sectors, with healthcare looking the strongest. Groups like energy, materials, and consumer staples are forecast to show the worst YOY declines in profit.
We’re seeing ongoing turmoil in markets — and that makes THIS recent interview from the 2025 MoneyShow Masters Symposium Dallas worth a re-watch. Fox Business’ Charles Payne sat down with Jim Bianco, president and macro strategist at Bianco Research, there for a candid and timely conversation on the current state of the markets, the Fed, and global economic pressure.
They dove into the fallout from Jay Powell’s recent remarks and why the Fed appears reluctant to cut rates despite growing economic uncertainty. Plus, they explored the broader impact of tariffs, particularly how China and other global players may be using stock market volatility as leverage.
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Amid Parade of Pessimism, Should You Be Buying?
👉️ TICKERS: DIA, QQQ, SPY
We see real confusion among businesses that has suddenly made them very pessimistic about their future. Consumers and investors, too. Should you be buying? Here’s my take, notes Michael Murphy, editor of New World Investor.
Gold: After Recent Breakout, Path to $4,000 by YE 2025 Looks Clear
👉️ TICKER: GLDWe've been bullish on gold since it broke out above $2,000 per ounce at the end of February 2024. It has been trading in an upward channel since then and in recent days, it has jumped to a record $3,300, which is the upper end of the channel, observes Ed Yardeni, editor of Yardeni QuickTakes.
