TPTP 04/01/25

Market Minute 4/1/25:⏱️Investors Wary Ahead of "Liberation Day"

Mike Larson | Editor-in-Chief

No, it’s not an April Fool’s Day joke. Stocks reversed after an ugly open yesterday and closed higher (except for the Nasdaq, that is). Unfortunately, we’re giving back some of that ground today. Crude oil is flat along with the dollar, while gold, silver, and Treasuries are a bit higher.

It’s less than 24 hours to “Liberation Day,” what the Trump Administration has dubbed the day it releases a wide-ranging list of tariffs. Exactly which countries will pay how much and for what products remains to be seen. Everything from across-the-board levies to more-targeted reciprocal tariffs are on the table, according to various media reports.

But many Wall Street economists aren’t waiting for the news. They’re raising recession probability forecasts given the projected negative impact on spending and upward pressure on inflation from higher tariffs. As for markets, the Nasdaq 100 just suffered its worst quarterly loss (8.3%) in three years, while Treasuries outperformed the S&P 500 for the first time since Q1 2020.

NMAX (1-Day Chart)

The Initial Public Offering (IPO) market got a jolt yesterday when shares of the conservative media company Newsmax Inc. (NMAX) soared 735% in their debut. Unlike the recent, MUCH larger $1.5 billion IPO for AI play CoreWeave Inc. (CRWV) that bombed last week, this was a small deal. Newsmax sold just 7.5 million shares at $10, for a total value of $75 million. But the strong rally left NMAX valued at $10.7 billion. The South Florida firm lost $72 million in 2024 on sales of $171 million.

Elsewhere in the AI world, OpenAI is raising as much as $40 billion in a funding round led by SoftBank Group Corp. (SFTBY). A $10 billion infusion is planned for mid-April, with another $30 billion to follow in December if demand is there. The deal pricing would value OpenAI at $300 billion, almost double the $157 billion valuation set in the last funding round in October.

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