TPTP 03/31/25

Market Minute 3/31/25:⏱️Stocks Extend $5 TLN Tariff Rout

Mike Larson | Editor-in-Chief

Stop me if you’ve heard this one: Global stocks are tumbling on tariff talk. After declines of 2% for the S&P 500 and 2.7% for the Nasdaq on Friday, markets are losing another percentage point or so in the early going today. Gold keeps rallying, though, hitting another record high around $3,160 an ounce. Silver and crude oil are up a bit along with Treasuries, while the dollar is flat.

Groundhog Day may be in the rearview mirror. But just like the 1993 Bill Murray movie named after that holiday, markets keep re-living the same lousy day – selling off on President Trump’s tariff plans. Over the weekend, the president said reciprocal tariffs would “start with all countries” on April 2, rather than focus on just a handful of the worst trade-policy offenders. A separate Wall Street Journal story suggested Trump is pushing advisors to be more aggressive, and implement a “big and simple” plan.

Gold, Treasuries Lead...Small Caps, Tech Lag in Q1?

With April 2 fast approaching, investors are scrambling around the world. Japan’s benchmark index plunged 4% overnight, and the S&P 500 is on track for its worst quarterly performance since 2022. US stocks have shed about $5 TRILLION in value since late February. In Q1, they have also vastly underperformed developed and emerging foreign markets and, of course, gold.

Despite the market gloom, we’re still seeing the occasional M&A deal. Rocket Cos. (RKT) said it would buy Mr. Cooper Group Inc. (COOP) for $9.4 billion to bolster its mortgage-lending operations. The acquisition comes not long after Rocket said it would buy the real estate listings firm Redfin. Mortgage rates have been sliding lately amid reduced inflation and growth expectations. As a result, refinance loan applications are up more than 63% year-over-year.

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