Market Minute ⏱️ 8/4/25: Stocks Stabilize on Fed Cut Hopes

Mike Larson | Editor-in-Chief

Markets are looking to find their footing after a late-week beat down on disappointing tariff and jobs data. Equities are modestly higher along with gold and silver, while crude oil is down along with the dollar. Treasuries are up a bit.

One reason markets are stabilizing is anticipation of cheaper money. One of the Federal Reserve’s governors, Adriana Kugler, resigned on Friday rather than serve until her term expired in January. That opens the door for President Trump to appoint someone more inclined to cut interest rates, though it’ll take some time for the process to play out.

Following Friday’s lousy jobs data, the likelihood of a 25-basis point rate cut in September shot up. Rate futures markets are now pricing in about an 83% chance of a cut, versus 63% a week ago, according to CME FedWatch. The probabilities of one or more cuts in October and/or December have climbed, too.

Boeing Co. (BA) is facing more labor strife, this time at its defense aircraft division. Employees at its St. Louis-area factories make products like the F-15 fighter jet, and around 3,200 walked off the job early today after rejecting a retirement and wage hike deal. It’s the first strike for that union since 1996.

Lastly, another digital assets firm – the crypto exchange Bullish – is looking to go public. The firm said it wanted to sell 20.3 million shares in an Initial Public Offering (IPO) priced between $28 and $31. The $629 million planned offering follows other successful deals in recent weeks, including last week’s blockbuster Figma Inc. (FIG) IPO. Miami International Holdings, which operates the MIAX options, equities, and futures exchanges, also just filed for a $315 million IPO.

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• SPX: Should You Buy the Dip After Last Week's Rug Pull?
  👉️ TICKERS: QQQ, SPX
  I laid out two very distinct scenarios in last Sunday’s short: A dip into earnings if traders wanted lower prices OR a run higher followed by a “rug pull” after otherwise great numbers. Now we know what’s what. So do you buy the dip…or do something else? Here’s my take, writes Keith Fitz-Gerald, editor of 5 With Fitz.

• BBH: A Biotech Fund That's Ripe for a Major Turnaround
  👉️ TICKER: KMI
  Biotech is the Rodney Dangerfield of the stock market. It gets no respect at all. That’s fine because respect is around the corner. And if you act now, you can buy biotechs on the cheap. I like the VanEck Biotech ETF (BBH), says Sean Brodrick, editor of Weiss Ratings Daily.

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👩‍🏭 🏦 The Fed says the labor market's fine, but hiring has slowed to 2008 and 2020 levels. Jerome Powell will regret his decision to hold rates steady in July. (Opening Bell Daily)