Top Pros' Top Picks 8/1/25

Market Minute ⏱️ 8/1/25: Stocks Slide on Tariff, Job Woes

Mike Larson | Editor-in-Chief

Stocks are sliding around the world as tariffs strike with full force – and as the latest jobs figures left a lot to be desired. Treasuries are rallying, the dollar is dropping, and gold and silver are climbing.

The Trump Administration's tariffs are hitting with full force – and markets are reeling in response. Essentially every US trading partner will pay more to send goods to the US starting one week from today. The average tariff rate on US imports will rise to 15.2% from 13.3% earlier this year, according to Bloomberg Economics. Before Trump in 2024, the rate was just 2.3%.

SPY, VEU, EWC, EWW, EWL, FXI (YTD % Change)

Countries like Switzerland (39%) and Canada (35% for some exports to the US) are faring even worse under the new tariff regime. Meanwhile, Mexico was given a 90-day reprieve for more talks. Recent US-China negotiations in Sweden could result in another extension of the temporary truce there, but Trump hasn’t signed off on that yet. The chart here shows how various ETFs are performing, including the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), the Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU), and funds that track stock markets in Canada, Mexico, Switzerland, and China.

As for the July jobs report? Not great. Economists thought the economy created 110,000 jobs last month. The actual number was just 73,000. Worse, the last two readings were revised down by a whopping 258,000! The unemployment rate climbed to 4.2% from 4.1%, while labor force participation ticked down. Even though wage growth held at 0.3%, the weak data overall increases the chance of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut at next month’s meeting.

Lastly, Figma Inc. (FIG) had one heck of a stock market debut yesterday. The design software company raised $1.2 billion in an Initial Public Offering of 36.94 million shares at $33. Then when the stock finally opened for trading, it soared more than 250%! Shares were recently even higher, trading around $138. The company’s valuation is now hovering around $68 billion – more than triple the $20 billion that Adobe Inc. (ADBE) once tried to pay for the company (before that takeover deal unraveled in January 2024).

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• Q2 Earnings: Beating Initial Estimates and Helping Stocks Rise
  👉️ TICKER: SPX
  The Q2 2025 earnings reporting period is well underway. Second quarter earnings per share are projected to rise 4.2% on a year-over-year basis, according to S&P Capital IQ consensus estimates, versus the 2.2% growth forecast as of June 30, highlights Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.

• MSFT & META: Spending Like Mad, But Blowing Away Estimates
  👉️ TICKER: META, QQQ, MSFT
  Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) shares just soared, hitting a new all-time high and topping the $4 trillion market cap mark, after the company posted a beat-and-raise quarter. Meanwhile, Meta Platforms Inc. (META) also hit new all-time highs after it posted a double-beat and raised its forecast, notes Tom Bruni, editor-in-chief of The Daily Rip by Stocktwits.

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