Top Pros' Top Picks 7/28/25

Market Minute ⏱️ 7/28/25: Markets Cheer EU, China Deal Progress

Mike Larson | Editor-in-Chief

The equity markets are starting the week off with a positive tone thanks to trade deal progress over the weekend. Gold and silver are a bit lower, while crude oil is higher. The dollar is popping, but Treasuries are taking on water.

The US and European Union reached a trade deal in Scotland over the weekend, one that will result in EU exporters paying 15% tariffs (rather than up to 50%) on most products. Tariffs on many US exports to Europe will drop to zero. The EU is the US’ biggest trading partner, with just over 20% – or about $303 billion – of total imports coming from the bloc in the first five months of 2025.

Some European countries complained the deal was too generous to the US. But markets on both sides of the Atlantic rallied because worst-case outcomes were averted. Meanwhile, negotiators from the US and China are meeting in Stockholm this week. The gathering will likely result in another 90-day pause on new cross-border tariffs, one designed to give both sides more time to talk. The previous extension runs through Aug. 12.

The iShares Europe ETF (IEV) and iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) are handily outperforming the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) in 2025, as you can see in this chart.
 

SPY, IEV, FXI (YTD % Change)

The Federal Reserve will meet this week to discuss interest rates, with a decision to be announced Wednesday afternoon. Despite heavy pressure from the White House, Chairman Jay Powell & Co. will almost certainly NOT cut rates this week. But Powell could hint that cuts are coming soon. The final three Fed meetings of 2025 conclude on Sept. 17, Oct. 29, and Dec. 10.

Finally, Tesla Inc. (TSLA) and Samsung Electronics Co. just inked a $16.5 billion, multi-year semiconductor production deal. Samsung will supply Tesla’s next-generation AI6 chip from a new factory in Texas, a major step in Samsung’s quest to catch up to industry leader Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM). Samsung shares jumped almost 7% on the news.

Hooper: THIS is What Has Been Driving the US Dollar’s Decline in 2025

• Gold: As Metal Pulls Back, Miners Hold Firm
  👉️ TICKERS: GDX, GLD
  The weakness in gold over the past couple of sessions is due to relief on the tariff front, as the Trump Administration has sealed some deals with trade partners. But if you think this ends the macroeconomic risks – as deficits continue to soar and inflationary pressures continue to bubble – just watch what happens in the weeks ahead, says Brien Lundin, executive editor of Gold Newsletter.

• ETHA: An Ethereum ETF to Buy as Market Acceptance Grows
  👉️ TICKER: ETHA
  Ethereum has surged 60% over the past month to hover near $3,800, its highest level since January. The iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy Ethereum, and it IS a “Buy” for the coming explosion in token-funded start-ups, advises Michael Murphy, editor of New World Investor.

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📉 UnitedHealth Stock Spirals Lower Again. Don’t Buy the Dip. A new development adds to an already challenging period for UnitedHealth, which has been grappling with rising medical costs and a sudden CEO change. (Barchart)