Market Minute ⏱️ 5/12/26: Oil, Inflation, Yields All on the Rise!

Mike Larson | Editor-in-Chief

Oil prices are continuing to creep higher in the wake of discouraging Middle East conflict news. President Trump called Iran’s latest deal offer a “piece of garbage” – and characterized the current ceasefire as on “life support.” Brent crude recently changed hands for around $107 per barrel, while WTI climbed back above $101.

Meanwhile, higher energy prices are filtering through the US economy. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped 0.6% in April, pushing year-over-year inflation to a 35-month high of 3.8%. The “core” CPI rose 0.4% on the month, more than expected and enough to push the YOY core rate up to 2.8%. Trump floated a suspension of the federal gas tax to lower fuel prices. But it would only shave them by 18.4 cents a gallon – and Congress would have to go along.

US 30-Year Treasury Bond Yield (TYX)

Rising inflation globally – and various political developments – are putting upward pressure on long-term interest rates, too. The UK’s benchmark 10-year yield just jumped to 5.13%, the highest since 2008. The cost of borrowing for 30 years there surged to its highest since 1998.

The move stems from worries about fiscal discipline if Prime Minster Keir Starmer gets ousted, plus the Bank of England’s shift toward potential rate hikes rather than rate cuts. Here in the US, 10-year yields have risen to 4.4% and 30-year yields are hovering around 5%. That puts them only a handful of basis points away from a 19-year high.

Finally, EBay Inc. (EBAY) rejected GameStop Corp.’s (GME) audacious takeover bid, saying the $56 billion offer was “neither credible nor attractive.” GME’s CEO Ryan Cohen had offered $125 per share in cash and stock for EBay, about $24 more than where EBay was trading at the time. But after a cringe-worthy interview on CNBC by Cohen...plus ongoing questions about how GME would afford to buy its much-larger target...chances of a successful deal consummation are dropping.

Parets: As a Trader, What I THINK Doesn’t Matter. Here’s Why!

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• SPX: Raising Our Target on Strong Earnings, AI Investment Boom
  👉️ TICKER: SPX
  At the end of March, after the S&P 500 Index (^SPX) stumbled more than 9%, CFRA identified a likely turnaround in fortunes. The S&P 500 went on to record its second-best performance in April since 1945. What’s more, history now offers additional encouragement, highlights Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.

• PMCOF: A Small Miner Moving Higher Ahead of Drill Results
  👉️ TICKER: PMCOF
  Prospector Metals Corp. (PMCOF) has seen its share price surge recently for no discernable reason. Yes, this season’s drill program at the ML prospect in the Yukon is widely anticipated as a follow up to the big discovery last year on the Tess target. But it’s a bit early to see strong buying in anticipation of drill results that probably won’t hit the market until midsummer, notes Brien Lundin, executive editor of Gold Newsletter.

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