Top Pros' Top Picks 11/26/25

Market Minute ⏱️ 11/26/25: Fed, Holiday Rally Hopes Propel Stocks

Mike Larson | Editor-in-Chief

Stocks surged yesterday, and they’re showing subdued gains in early trading today. Gold and silver are up a bit, too, while crude oil is flat. Treasuries and the dollar are mostly unchanged.

As a reminder: All US markets are closed on Thanksgiving, while the stock and bond markets will have abbreviated trading sessions on Friday. Historically, the S&P 500 Index (^SPX) has traded higher 60% of the time Tuesday-Friday of Thanksgiving week.

We’ve seen a BIG swing in expectations for the Federal Reserve’s December policy meeting. After toning down bets on another 25-basis point cut, traders have piled into positions that would profit if the Fed moved again before year end. Futures markets are now pricing in an 80% chance of another cut, versus around 30% a few days earlier. Weaker job market data and dovish Fed speeches and interviews have helped shift sentiment – and fuel stock market gains.

SPY, SFTBY (YTD % Change)

Most Artificial Intelligence (AI) stocks have slid from their October peaks, but Softbank Group Corp. (SFTBY) of Japan has been one of the hardest-hit. The investment firm has large stakes in both public and private tech and AI companies, and its shares have tanked 40% in the last several weeks.

The firm just finished the $6.5 billion acquisition of a US chip company called Ampere Computing. It also has a $32 billion deal to fund operations at OpenAI – a deal that requires it to pony up $22.5 billion in December. Still, mega-bank HSBC just published a 7,500 S&P 500 target for year-end 2026, partially citing the likelihood of an ongoing buildout of AI infrastructure. That underscores the intense nature of the AI "boom vs. bubble" debate.

Editor’s Note: The MoneyShow office will be closed Thursday and Friday for the Thanksgiving holiday. Then I will be on-site hosting our 2025 MoneyShow Masters Symposium Sarasota Monday-Wednesday next week.

We’ll release a special market podcast in Top Pros’ Top Picks on Thursday, but there will be no newsletter on Friday. Regular publication of my Market Minute column will resume on Thursday, Dec. 4. Have a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday!

Alhajji: Why the Bearish Oil Narrative Doesn’t Hold Water

• SPX: Will We See a Third Year of Double-Digit Gains?
  👉️ TICKER: SPX
  Much to the surprise of many investors, 2025 may turn out to be another great year for the US equity markets. That would buck the likelihood that the S&P 500 Index (^SPX) would not score a “three-peat,” or a third successive double-digit gain. Naturally, investors wonder if 2026 will see a fourth year of double-digit gains. Here’s my take, writes Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.

• Retailers: Three Reads on Consumer Spending Ahead of the Holidays
  👉️ TICKERS: ANF, BBY, KSS
  Retail stocks were a bright spot yesterday. Shares of Kohl's Corp. (KSS) soared after the retailer increased its forecast for the second straight quarter. Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF) also surged on the back of better results and a boosted forecast, notes Amber Kanwar, host of the In the Money with Amber Kanwar podcast.

☀️ 📈 Discover promising investment opportunities and cutting-edge trading strategies at the 2025 MoneyShow Masters Symposium Sarasota (Dec. 1-3). Click HERE to register today!